The NFL offseason
is in full swing. The memories of the
most dramatic Superbowl in recent times have started to fade away (unless
you’re a Falcons fan). The Scouting
Combine has transformed unknowns into household names. New mock drafts, player profiles, and
scouting reports are published daily.
The
offseason is a time filled with hope which after all is the NFL’s number one
commodity. Every year the NFL reminds us
of how many new teams made the playoffs. Eli’s Giants slaying Goliath (twice) is
forever etched in our minds. The
Narrative Industrial Complex keeps us coming back with the idea that our team
could be next. With a couple good drafts
and a little good fortune, our team could be the next Cinderella story.
That hopes
is what drives our relentless fascination with the “underwear Olympics” and the
draft and OTAs and training camp and on and on it goes. The relentless year-round spectacle is designed
to make us believe our team has a chance.
Are they lying to us? Does every
team really have a chance? What do
contending teams look like? That final
question is what I hope to answer.
What do
contending teams look like?
In January
of last year, Zach Moore from www.overthecap.com posted data from a research project
in which he studied the past 21 Superbowl champions (1994-2014). A cursory look at his data reveals an unsurprising truth: well-balanced
teams have one the vast majority of Superbowls in recent years. If we add the Superbowl champions from 2015
and 2016 to Zach’s data, only 6 of the past 23 Superbowl champions were ranked
outside of the top 10 in points scored during their Superbowl winning season
and only 5 of the past 23 champions were ranked outside of the top 10 in points
allowed. Before #TeamWellActually starts
pouring through this data for inconsistencies, please note I do not believe
merely winning the Superbowl classifies a team as a contender or positions a
franchise for long-term success.
Will Durant
The ability
to attain success is but the first part of the journey to becoming a
contender. Sustaining success is what
separates the great franchises from the rest of the league. Since 1994, 24 teams have made the Conference
Championship round of the NFL playoffs.
In the past ten seasons, 18 teams have made the Conference Championship
round. With more than half the league
making a deep playoff run in the last decade of play, Goodell and Co. have the
ammunition needed to make us believe.
Unfortunately, when we take a closer look the
veneer of hope begins to lose its luster.
Warning: Arbitrary Segmentation Incoming!!!
In the past
23 seasons, only seven franchises have reached the Conference Championship
round more than four times. In the past ten
seasons, only five franchises have made it three times or more. In the past five seasons, six franchises have
made the Conference Championship round two or more times – San Francisco (2),
Green Bay (2), Atlanta (2), Seattle (2), Denver (2), and New England (5).
Let’s take
a closer look at how these six recent contenders were built:
San Francisco
Ok, I
lied. We’re not going to spend any time
discussing San Fran. They were
good. Harbaugh left. Their players retired. They are picking second in this year’s
draft. Let’s move on.
Green Bay
Green Bay
is another team on this list we won’t spend too much time talking about. The Packers are imposters. I say this not (only) because they’re our
most hated rival but also because they are not a great football team. The Green Bay Packers have Aaron Rodgers and
that about sums it up. Rodgers makes an
otherwise unspectacular offense outstanding while helping to mask what has been
a largely average defensive unit.
In the six
seasons since Rodgers and second ranked Packers D won the Superbowl, Dom Capers’
unit has an average rank of 17th for points allowed. On the one hand, Rodgers is one of the most
talented QBs of all-time and it’s awful dealing with him in our division every
year. On the other hand, Rodgers’ brilliance is seemingly keeping him surrounded
by mediocre coaches and a GM without the will to optimize the roster around him.
Atlanta
I have to
admit I was a bit surprised to see Atlanta on this list. I should probably pause here to admit that
I’m likely biased to expect nothing but the worst from Atlanta sports after
living there for most of my formative years.
With that completely unnecessary trip down memory lane out of the way,
let’s dig into how Atlanta built itself into a contender.
The Atlanta’s
turnaround can be traced back to the 2008 NFL Draft in which they acquired Matt
Ryan. The Falcons found their franchise
QB and changed their fortunes immediately.
For all intents and purposes, Atlanta took a roster that went 4-12,
subtracted Joey Harrington, added Matt Ryan, won 11 games in 2008, and
continued on to make the playoffs in four of Ryan’s first five seasons (no I
will not add context by talking about what happened in 2007).
Atlanta GM
Thomas Dimitroff traded the world for Julio Jones in 2011 which nearly helped
to propel the team to the Superbowl in 2012, but the loss of draft capital also contributed
to Falcons winning a mere ten games in the 2013 and 2014 seasons combined. Mike Smith was fired after the 2014
season. Dan Quinn was hired. Dimitroff and Quinn aggressively added early
round defensive talent which helped to open Atlanta’s current window to
contend.
Seattle
The
foundation for Seattle’s current run of dominance was laid in 2010 when they
hired Pete Carroll and John Schneider.
Schneider then drafted Russell Okung, Earl Thomas, Golden Tate, Walter
Thurmond, and Kam Chancellor in the 2010 NFL draft and traded for Marshawn
Lynch early in the season. The 2010 Seahawks went 7-9, won their division, beat
the Saints in the playoffs, and brought Beast Mode
into all of our lives. Schneider added
Richard Sherman, KJ Wright, Byron Maxwell, and Malcolm Smith in the 2011 draft
before truly striking gold with Bobby Wagner and Russell Wilson in 2012.
Russell
Wilson is the piece that truly turned the Seahawks into Superbowl
contenders. While the narrative around
Wilson is that Seattle won early in his career because of defense and Marshawn
Lynch, the Seahawks (with Marshawn Lynch and a solid defense) were ranked 23rd
in points scored in 2010 and 2011. The
season Russell Wilson became the Seahawks starting quarterback, they became a
top 10 scoring offense. They went on to
repeat this feat for four season, have made the playoffs for five consecutive
seasons, have been to two Superbowls, and have won one Superbowl title.
Denver
John Elway
was hired, Von Miller was drafted, and a contender was born. After the additions of the Elway in
management and Miller on the field, the 2011 Broncos doubled their win total
from 2010 and moved from worst to first in the AFC West. Elway knew the 25th ranked scoring
offense led by Tim Tebow was unlikely to get the Broncos to the Superbowl and
he went all-in to win the Peyton Manning sweepstakes in 2012.
Peyton
Manning transformed the Broncos offense into a unit which ranked no less than second
in scoring in his first three seasons with Denver. During each year of the Manning era, Denver
ranked in the top 10 in points differential and never finished worse than third
in yards differential. In an ironic turn
of events, Denver won the Superbowl in Manning’s worst statistical season as a professional
quarterback in 2015. Manning retired after
the Superbowl win which ushered Denver into Osweiler/Siemian/Lynch era,
a third place finish in the division, and their first time missing the playoffs
since the 2010 season.
New England
After their
second loss to the Giants in the Superbowl, Belichick began building Patriots
3.0 to retool for this iteration in their never-ending run of dominance. New England made the 2011 Superbowl but their
scoring defense was uncharacteristically average ranking 15th
overall. While Brady deservedly gets a
lot of credit for New England’s success, their scoring defenses has ranked in
the top 10 during the most successful years of their dynasty’s run. Belichick double dipped in round one of the
2012 NFL by selecting Don’t’a Hightower and Chandler Jones and his first pick
of each draft since has been a defensive player. Belichick and the Patriots are basically the
anti-Packers in the aggressive manner in which they look to optimize their
roster around Brady which is why they’ve made it to Conference Championship or
the Superbowl in each of the past five years.
What does it all mean?
My first
observation is a very obvious one: teams
with strong offenses and strong defenses are most likely to be contenders. The next observation is probably just as
obvious: the best way to sustain high-level offense is have a top 10 quarterback. San Francisco’s brief run was kicked off by
upgrading from Alex Smith to Colin Kaepernick at the peak of his powers. Aaron Rodgers by sheer virtue of his
brilliance keeps Green Bay in the conversation.
Matt Ryan with great weapons and a solid defense is good enough to win
(consistently?). Russell Wilson’s off
the charts passing efficiency transformed Seattle into perennial contenders. Peyton Manning paired with Denver’s defense
created a window that slammed shut when Father Time escorted Peyton out of the
club. Tom Brady continues to run NE’s
offense like a well-oiled machine while Belichick reinforces the defense and
offensive line to keep him protected.
This bring
me to a quick look at our Minnesota Vikings.
Mike Zimmer’s arrival transformed our defense from last place doormats
to consistent top 10 unit. This ever-ascending
unit is solid but has not yet reached the levels of Seattle or Denver at their
peaks. The Minnesota offense is another
story altogether. The Vikings have not
had a top 10 scoring offense since 2009 and have only had an above average
scoring offense twice since Farve’s magical season. With the jury still out on Sam Bradford’s
ability to be a consistently above average QB, Minnesota cannot afford to
settle at the position and must invest heavily on the offensive side of the
ball in the draft, via waivers, trade market, and free agency. San Francisco, Green Bay, and New England each
acquired their QBs while an established starter was entrenched and
Seattle drafted Russell Wilson after signing Matt Flynn to a big free agent
contract. Minnesota must continue to
build around Sam Bradford but must not shy away from bringing in competition via
the draft or trade if the opportunity presents itself. Minnesota has half the ingredients required
to be a contender because of Mike Zimmer’s defense but unless the offense takes
a huge leap forward, the Vikings will continue to be a franchise mired in
mediocrity worshiping at the NFL’s altar of false hope.
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